Vol. 8, Special Issue 12, Part R (2024)

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is a transboundary viral disease affecting cattle, leading to substantial economic losses in livestock production. This study explores the spatial dynamics of LSD outbreaks in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, during 2022–2023, using spatial epidemiological tools. LSD outbreak data were collected from 70 districts, with incidence rates standardized per 10,000 cattle based on the 20th Livestock Census. Spatial statistical analyses, including Global Moran’s I, Anselin Local Moran’s I, and Getis-Ord Gi*, were performed to detect clustering patterns and hotspots, complemented by a Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) to assess directional trends.
The analysis revealed a total of 140,724 cases during the study period, with the highest incidence rates in Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, and Bareilly. Global Moran’s I (I = 0.03, p = 0.5) indicated an overall random spatial distribution of outbreaks. Local Moran’s I identified significant clusters, including a High-High cluster in Bareilly and High-Low clusters in Gorakhpur, Shamli, and Rampur. The Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified hotspots in Saharanpur-Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, and Mathura. The SDE analysis revealed a northwest-to-southeast directional spread of the disease, centered at the Unnao-Hardoi border (27.2979° N, 80.1875° E), likely influenced by livestock movement corridors.
This spatial epidemiological approach highlights critical areas for targeted interventions and control measures. The findings emphasize the importance of hotspot-specific disease control strategies, including vaccination and vector control, particularly in high-risk districts. The directional spread underscores the role of livestock movement in disease transmission, suggesting the need for stricter biosecurity measures. These insights provide a foundation for informed policy-making and improved management of LSD outbreaks in UP and other affected regions.